The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the agenda for most businesses in all countries and it is uncertain what the world will look like on the other side.
The IMF expects a short but deep contraction on the global economy in 2020. However, as you look through the estimates for the various countries, you will notice an uneven spread. The bottom line is that the long-term trend predicted in my previous BECH index whitepapers have been accelerated.
Industrial demand continues moving east, and the Corona crisis will leave China and India stronger than before.
“Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. Internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including help for financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channelling aid to countries with weak health care systems.”
According to the IMF data and my calculations, China became the largest IT-market in the world in 2018. With a share of then 17.19 per cent China surpassed the USA, which represented 17.01 per cent of global demand. However, adding Canada, North America still represented 18.45 per cent of the total market. In 2021 we expect China, with 19.22 per cent, to grow enough to surpass North America, with 17.72 per cent in total. Also, India will come out stronger on the other side with a share of 8.02 per cent of global demand in 2021.